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Posts Tagged ‘pv’

Grid Parity

May 17th, 2009 by Seldom

I keep being surprised that people who should know this don’t.  This is from Wikipedia:

Photovoltaic production has been doubling every two years, increasing by an average of 48 percent each year since 2002, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy technology.[4]

For the last 40 years, every time the world production rate of PV doubles, the price falls by 18%.  See this earlier post for more information:  PV Price Declining Again

Grid parity, the point at which photovoltaic electricity is equal to or cheaper than grid power, is achieved first in areas with abundant sun and high costs for electricity such as in California and Japan.[77]

Grid parity has been reached in Hawaii and other islands that otherwise use fossil fuel (diesel fuel) to produce electricity, and most of the country is expected to reach grid parity by 2015.[78][79]

General Electric’s Chief Engineer predicts grid parity without subsidies in sunny parts of the United States by around 2015. Other companies predict an earlier date:[80] the cost of solar power will be below grid parity for more than half of residential customers and 10% of commercial customers in the OECD, as long as grid electricity prices do not decrease through 2010.[81]

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Buying PV is a Dumb Use of Money

March 16th, 2009 by Seldom

Brad Templeton explains that you have to look at the bigger picture.

If you’re the sort of person who would put up a solar system, you probably already switched to CFL or other efficient lighting. Good. But you can do more. If you took a few hours of your time, and just six of your dollars, you could walk down the street in some town giving out CFL bulbs to people who would let you take out their old bulb and install the new one, making sure the bulb will really be effective. If you manage to get just 13 bulbs replaced that are used for just 3 hours per night, you’ve taken as much power off the grid as a $7,800 1000 watt PV panel. All for $40 and an hour or two of your time…

The bulbs stick out, but there are other things you can do. A new fridge, as noted, will save a lot of power. It’s surprising how bad fridges from the 80s and 90s are compared to those of 2009. Buying one for yourself actually saves you money, but you could even go out and buy new fridges for any neighbours who have models that are 15 to 20 years old, and it would still be better than putting that solar panel on your roof.

You could also buy people new gas dryers. Because gas has gone up they don’t save as much money as they used to, and they need a gas plumber to install, but they still beat the panels. Not buying one for yourself. I mean simply going to your neighbour and saying, “would you like a brand new gas dryer and the free services of a plumber at my expense to hook it up and toss out your electric one?” It’s a real win if you single out people with large families and lots of laundry. You could do even better if you convinced them to use a clothesline more, but that’s a harder sell. A new dryer is much easier.

::  Are Solar Panels a Wasteful Way to go Green?

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PV Price Declining Again

March 12th, 2009 by Seldom

For the last 40 years, every time the world production rate of PV doubles, the price falls by 18%.

However, the PV price drop stalled out in 2004 – mainly due to a shortage of silicon. Demand has been artificially inflated by government subsidies (mostly Germany), and the price of silicone went from $25/kg in 2003 to $400/kg in 2008.

Now prices are falling again. I’m sure it’s partially due to a recession induced drop in demand for computer chips and solar panels, but more silicon processing plants are also coming on line.

After hitting $4.20 a watt in the middle of 2008, solar panel prices have slid almost 30 percent to about $3 a watt, with research firm New Energy Finance predicting a further 20% drop this year.

PV prices are likely to continue dropping in months ahead. Renewable Energy World reported, “The cost of photovoltaic electricity is due to plummet in 2009, according to a new analysis by New Energy Finance. Its latest Silicon and Wafer Price Index shows average silicon contract prices falling by more than 30% in 2009 compared with 2008. . . . Furthermore, with thin-film PV module manufacturing costs approaching the $1/watt mark, crystalline silicon-based PV will come under severe competition for larger projects, resulting in margins shrinking throughout the silicon value chain, the company argues. . . . This may pressure crystalline silicon module manufacturers to reduce selling prices . . . $4/watt could drop to $2.60/watt by the end of 2009.

Keep in mind, this is for the PV panels themselves. For residential sized systems the costs break down roughly like this:

$4 PV modules
$1 Inverter
$1 Installation
$2 Balance of system (wiring, disconnects, etc.)
$8 per watt installed

:: Green Building Advisor

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PV Under $1 per Watt

February 27th, 2009 by Seldom

First Solar announced that they have reached $1/watt for solar panels, within spitting distance of grid parity.

First Solar’s eventual goal is “grid parity,” a phrase that refers to making solar power cost the same as competing conventional power sources without subsidies. Right now the cost of making panels accounts for a little less than half the total cost of installation. The company estimates that it needs to get manufacturing costs down to $0.65 to $0.70 per watt, and other installation costs down to $1 a watt in order to reach grid parity—goals First Solar plans to reach by 2012.

The question, though, is whether First Solar or any other solar manufacturer would be able to handle the flood of orders that would ensue if they reached competitive cost. At that point, it comes down to a matter of having enough of raw materials. That is where the real limitations come to bear, according to a paper that will appear in the March issue of the journal Environmental Science & Technology. In the paper, Wadia and colleagues Paul Alivisatos and Daniel Kammen evaluated the global supplies and extraction costs for 23 promising photovoltaic semiconductor materials and found that the three materials that currently dominate the market—silicon, CdTe and another thin-film technology based on copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS)—all have limitations when ordered in mass. While silicon is the second-most abundant element in the Earth’s crust, it requires enormous amounts of energy to convert into a usable crystalline form. This is a fundamental thermodynamic barrier that will keep silicon costs comparatively high. Both CIGS and First Solar’s CdTe rank poorly in abundance and extraction cost, with CdTe ranking dead last in long-term potential based on current annual extraction rates.

Nanosolar also said they were able to produce their panels for $1/watt when they debuted last year.

:: Popular Mechanics

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